Election Iraq
No doubt tomorrow's election in Iraq is an important step. However, the demagogues and chest thumpers should remain seated and remember the big pictures. Loudly proclaiming, "IT WAS A SUCCESS.. SEE WE TOLD YOU SO!". Is a fools game.
Should a vote be held and some quantity of millions of people cast ballots, it can be called a success. However, the larger goal and the success of the balloting are not the same. The goal is to create a stable, successful government in Iraq.
It is unlikely the Sunnis will turn out in any large numbers. It really wouldn't matter if they did. The future of Iraq is about power and who has it. Even if the Sunnis turned out in large numbers, they still would not be in power.
What has to happen in Iraq is a cessation of violence. An aliented group that has been knocked out of power is the threat to that objective. It is possible for the vote to cement in the minds of Sunnis they have no power and the Shi'ites do. The Shi'ites have resisted the natural urge to strike back at sectarian violence directed towards them. With the first step of the voting process out of the way, this might not hold. Civil violence is a genuine possibility.
It is also possible for the Shi-ites to implement a fundamentalist theocracy similar to Iran. Al-Sistani is a Muslim cleric, not a progressive. A fundamentalist government will not be an achievement worthy of the deaths of American soldiers and the expenditure of billions of tax payer dollars.
Tomorrow there will be a vote. By a basic measure, it will be a success. However, the bigger quesiton will not be answered by it. Even before pursuing a vote, this administration would have been wise to put a BIG priority on establishing an effective Iraqi military. It is not until then that we have the chance of pulling out our troops and leaving behing a stable goverment, vote or no vote.
Should a vote be held and some quantity of millions of people cast ballots, it can be called a success. However, the larger goal and the success of the balloting are not the same. The goal is to create a stable, successful government in Iraq.
It is unlikely the Sunnis will turn out in any large numbers. It really wouldn't matter if they did. The future of Iraq is about power and who has it. Even if the Sunnis turned out in large numbers, they still would not be in power.
What has to happen in Iraq is a cessation of violence. An aliented group that has been knocked out of power is the threat to that objective. It is possible for the vote to cement in the minds of Sunnis they have no power and the Shi'ites do. The Shi'ites have resisted the natural urge to strike back at sectarian violence directed towards them. With the first step of the voting process out of the way, this might not hold. Civil violence is a genuine possibility.
It is also possible for the Shi-ites to implement a fundamentalist theocracy similar to Iran. Al-Sistani is a Muslim cleric, not a progressive. A fundamentalist government will not be an achievement worthy of the deaths of American soldiers and the expenditure of billions of tax payer dollars.
Tomorrow there will be a vote. By a basic measure, it will be a success. However, the bigger quesiton will not be answered by it. Even before pursuing a vote, this administration would have been wise to put a BIG priority on establishing an effective Iraqi military. It is not until then that we have the chance of pulling out our troops and leaving behing a stable goverment, vote or no vote.
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